diff --git a/scripts/dependabot-alerts.mjs b/scripts/dependabot-alerts.mjs
index 067b7ec7..daca7b43 100644
--- a/scripts/dependabot-alerts.mjs
+++ b/scripts/dependabot-alerts.mjs
@@ -1128,14 +1128,31 @@ export function main(
    * advisory must never do is stand itself down.
    */
   /**
-   * `(package, manifest, GHSA)` tuples that made it into a group — the ones
-   * this sweep can actually file a bump for.
+   * What this run actually established about each `(package, manifest, GHSA)`.
+   *
+   * ⚠️ Recorded DURING the loop, not derived from `groups` beforehand. Being in
+   * a group only means an alert exists; whether an issue tracks it is decided
+   * by the ecosystem check, the manifest read and the range probe that follow
+   * (Copilot). Reading "is it in a group?" as "does it have an issue?" would
+   * clear an old issue as superseded while its replacement was skipped.
+   *
+   * - `tracked` — an issue for it exists after this run.
+   * - `not-exposed` — probed, and nothing installed is in range.
+   * - `indeterminate` — could not be probed at all this run.
+   *
+   * Absent means no group carried it, i.e. no bump is available for it.
+   *
+   * @type {Map<string, "tracked" | "not-exposed" | "indeterminate">}
    */
-  const filableAdvisories = new Set(
-    groups.flatMap((g) =>
-      g.ghsas.map((ghsa) => advisoryKey(g.package, g.manifestPath, ghsa)),
-    ),
-  );
+  const disposition = new Map();
+  const note = (group, ghsas, value) => {
+    for (const ghsa of ghsas) {
+      disposition.set(
+        advisoryKey(group.package, group.manifestPath, ghsa),
+        value,
+      );
+    }
+  };
   const openAdvisories = new Set(
     alerts
       .filter((a) => a.state === "open")
@@ -1161,6 +1178,7 @@ export function main(
       console.log(
         `dependabot-alerts: ${rawGroup.package} (${rawGroup.ecosystem}, ${rawGroup.manifestPath}) is not an npm dependency — this sweep cannot file it, raise it by hand: ${rawGroup.ghsas.join(", ")}`,
       );
+      note(rawGroup, rawGroup.ghsas, "indeterminate");
       continue;
     }
 
@@ -1193,12 +1211,14 @@ export function main(
       console.log(
         `dependabot-alerts: ${rawGroup.manifestPath} could not be parsed as an npm lockfile — skipping ${rawGroup.package} WITHOUT clearing its issue`,
       );
+      note(rawGroup, rawGroup.ghsas, "indeterminate");
       continue;
     }
     if (manifest.absent) {
       console.log(
         `dependabot-alerts: ${rawGroup.manifestPath} absent on ${TARGET_BRANCH} — skipping ${rawGroup.package}`,
       );
+      note(rawGroup, rawGroup.ghsas, "not-exposed");
       clear(`\`${rawGroup.manifestPath}\` is no longer part of this repo`);
       continue;
     }
@@ -1211,6 +1231,7 @@ export function main(
       console.log(
         `dependabot-alerts: ${rawGroup.package}@${seen.join("/") || "(absent)"} is already out of range on ${TARGET_BRANCH} — skipping`,
       );
+      note(rawGroup, rawGroup.ghsas, "not-exposed");
       clear(
         seen.length > 0
           ? `every installed copy is out of range (${seen.map((v) => `\`${v}\``).join(", ")})`
@@ -1221,6 +1242,14 @@ export function main(
     // From here on `group` carries only the advisories that apply to this
     // branch, so the marker, title, severity and table cannot overstate it.
     const { group, affected } = applicable;
+    // The narrowing dropped advisories whose range no longer matches: those are
+    // probed-and-clear, the survivors get an issue.
+    note(
+      rawGroup,
+      rawGroup.ghsas.filter((g) => !group.ghsas.includes(g)),
+      "not-exposed",
+    );
+    note(group, group.ghsas, "tracked");
 
     const declared = isDirectDependency(lock, group.package);
 
@@ -1339,24 +1368,32 @@ export function main(
       openAdvisories.has(key3(g)),
     );
 
-    // ⚠️ Three states, not two. An advisory can be open and yet absent from
-    // every group, because `groupAlerts` drops one with no
-    // `first_patched_version` — there is nothing to bump to. Such an advisory
-    // has NO replacement issue, so calling it "superseded" would be false and
-    // clearing it would stand down a live exposure with nothing tracking it
-    // (Copilot). Leave the issue exactly as it is and say so.
-    const unpatched = stillOpen.filter((g) => !filableAdvisories.has(key3(g)));
-    if (unpatched.length > 0) {
+    // ⚠️ Clearing needs positive evidence about every advisory still open here.
+    // Two things deny it, and both mean "leave the issue alone" (Copilot):
+    // an advisory this run could not probe (`indeterminate` — a non-npm
+    // manifest, or one that would not parse), and one no group carried at all
+    // (absent — `groupAlerts` drops an alert with no `first_patched_version`,
+    // so there is nothing to bump to and no replacement issue).
+    const unresolved = stillOpen.filter((g) => {
+      const state = disposition.get(key3(g));
+      return state === undefined || state === "indeterminate";
+    });
+    if (unresolved.length > 0) {
       console.log(
-        `dependabot-alerts: #${issue.number} left as is — ${unpatched.join(", ")} ${unpatched.length === 1 ? "is" : "are"} still open with no patched version to bump to`,
+        `dependabot-alerts: #${issue.number} left as is — ${unresolved.join(", ")} ${unresolved.length === 1 ? "is" : "are"} still open and this run could not establish a replacement`,
       );
       continue;
     }
 
+    const tracked = stillOpen.filter(
+      (g) => disposition.get(key3(g)) === "tracked",
+    );
     const reason =
-      stillOpen.length > 0
-        ? `this bump was superseded — ${stillOpen.map((g) => `\`${g}\``).join(", ")} ${stillOpen.length === 1 ? "is" : "are"} still open under a different patched version, and ${stillOpen.length === 1 ? "has" : "have"} their own issue`
-        : "every alert it tracked has been fixed or dismissed";
+      stillOpen.length === 0
+        ? "every alert it tracked has been fixed or dismissed"
+        : tracked.length > 0
+          ? `this bump was superseded — ${tracked.map((g) => `\`${g}\``).join(", ")} ${tracked.length === 1 ? "is" : "are"} still open under a different patched version, and ${tracked.length === 1 ? "has" : "have"} their own issue`
+          : "no installed copy is in range of its advisories any more";
 
     writeCleared(
       issue,
diff --git a/scripts/dependabot-alerts.test.mjs b/scripts/dependabot-alerts.test.mjs
index 8441161b..c90e2fac 100644
--- a/scripts/dependabot-alerts.test.mjs
+++ b/scripts/dependabot-alerts.test.mjs
@@ -1451,7 +1451,7 @@ test("main will not stand down an open alert that lost its patched version", ()
       (l) =>
         l.includes("left as is") &&
         l.includes("GHSA-a") &&
-        l.includes("no patched version"),
+        l.includes("could not establish a replacement"),
     ),
     `expected a left-as-is line, got: ${log.join(" | ")}`,
   );
@@ -1620,6 +1620,73 @@ test("another manifest's alert cannot vouch for this one when clearing", () => {
   );
 });
 
+test("a revised bump does not clear the old issue when the probe is indeterminate", () => {
+  // GitHub revised first_patched_version, so the old key vanished — but the
+  // replacement group was skipped because the lockfile would not parse. Nothing
+  // was established, so "superseded, it has its own issue" would be a guess.
+  const [filed] = groupAlerts([alert({ ghsa: "GHSA-a", fixed: "3.1.6" })]);
+  const spawn = fakeSpawn({
+    alertPages: [[alert({ ghsa: "GHSA-a", fixed: "3.1.7", range: "< 3.1.7" })]],
+    issues: [
+      {
+        number: 41,
+        title: buildIssueTitle(filed),
+        body: buildIssueBody(filed, asInstalled()),
+      },
+    ],
+  });
+
+  const dir = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "dependabot-alerts-"));
+  const cwd = process.cwd();
+  let log;
+  try {
+    writeFileSync(join(dir, "package-lock.json"), "{ truncated…");
+    process.chdir(dir);
+    log = withoutProjectToken(() =>
+      captureLog(() => main("o/r", spawn, "2026-09-04")),
+    );
+  } finally {
+    process.chdir(cwd);
+    rmSync(dir, { recursive: true, force: true });
+  }
+
+  assert.equal(ghCall(spawn, "edit"), undefined, "the old issue is preserved");
+  assert.equal(ghCall(spawn, "create"), undefined);
+  assert.ok(
+    log.some((l) => l.includes("could not establish a replacement")),
+    `expected an indeterminate line, got: ${log.join(" | ")}`,
+  );
+});
+
+test("a revised bump that is no longer exposed clears without claiming an issue", () => {
+  // Same revision, but the probe DID run and found nothing in range. That is
+  // positive evidence, so the old issue clears — saying exposure is gone rather
+  // than claiming a replacement issue that was never filed.
+  const [filed] = groupAlerts([alert({ ghsa: "GHSA-a", fixed: "3.1.6" })]);
+  const spawn = fakeSpawn({
+    alertPages: [
+      [alert({ ghsa: "GHSA-a", fixed: "3.1.7", range: ">= 3.1.6, < 3.1.7" })],
+    ],
+    issues: [
+      {
+        number: 41,
+        title: buildIssueTitle(filed),
+        body: buildIssueBody(filed, asInstalled()),
+      },
+    ],
+  });
+  inTempRepo({ "package-lock.json": lockWith("fast-uri", "3.1.5") }, () =>
+    withoutProjectToken(() =>
+      captureLog(() => main("o/r", spawn, "2026-09-04")),
+    ),
+  );
+  const edit = ghCall(spawn, "edit");
+  assert.ok(edit);
+  const body = edit.args[edit.args.indexOf("--body") + 1];
+  assert.match(body, /no installed copy is in range/);
+  assert.doesNotMatch(body, /has their own issue|superseded/);
+});
+
 test("main reads every page of open dependabot issues", () => {
   // The second page holds the matching marker. Truncating the lookup would
   // file a duplicate issue rather than recognising this one.